MAP’s 2025F M&A Market Outlook

How's the market? Here's our 2025F M&A Market Outlook:

Last year, Media Advisory Partners (“MAP”) correctly forecasted that 4,800 total M&A transactions would take place in Q4 2024 (in North America). Thanks to the US Federal Reserve’s most recent cut to the Federal Funds Target Rate, MAP is now forecasting 5,000 completed M&A transactions in Q1 2025 (in North America).

Should our Q1 2025 forecast be realized, it will be the highest level of M&A activity in North America since Q1 2023 and represent 28% year-over-year growth in transaction volumes.

There's considerable momentum heading into 2025. Just last quarter (Q4 2024), M&A deal volumes in North America increased 30% year-over-year.

Leading analysis indicates mounting expectations for M&A deal volume growth in 2025. EY-Parthenon anticipates a 10% rise in US M&A deal volumes in 2025. A KPMG survey found that 84% of PE firm respondents anticipate more deal making in 2025 compared to 2024.

OUR 2025 M&A OUTLOOK ( Q2 2025 --> Q4 2025):

⬆️ 2025 SCENARIO A (bullish): Continued Fed Rate Cuts + Considerable Deregulation = Increased M&A Deal Volumes (5,000+ deals per quarter)

➡️ 2025 SCENARIO B (flatline): Fed Rate Cuts Paused + Some Deregulation = Potential M&A Deal Volume Plateau (~5,000 deals per quarter)

⬇️ 2025 SCENARIO C (bearish): Resurgent Inflation (Fed Rate Cuts Paused or Reversed) + Pronounced Geopolitical Instability = M&A Deal Volume Declines (4,800 or less deals per quarter)